Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Natural gas and climate change

Natural gas is cleaner than many alternatives, notably coal. It could help to reduce US carbon dioxide emissions from around 18 tonnes per person today to around 14 by 2040.

Unfortunately, that is nowhere near enough. I went to an interesting presentation last week on the 'Economic Implications of Moving Toward Global Convergence in Carbon Emissions'. I learned that taking into consideration population growth, the sustainable level per person per year is around 2 tonnes. That is around the India's level today.

A carbon tax imposed only in the developed world can help. But even a tax of around $250 per tonne would not be sufficient to achieve convergence at sustainable levels. A tax around this level would increase the price of petrol by around $4 per gallon. That sounds like a lot but it really isn't. Americans are still drastically under-paying for petrol compared with Europe and even compared with plenty of developing countries, which can least afford it. Unfortunately, carbon is currently trading at around $10 per tonne in the EU. Still some way to go.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Tradable green energy certificates in Romania

This story from Agerpres appeared in my in-box today but I can't find the internet link:

"As many as 36,9000 green certificates namely 15,200 in the first session and 21,700 in the second session, were traded on the Centralized Green Certificates Market (PCCV), in July 2012, read data OPCOM energy market operator made public.

Five purchase and 32 sale bids were launched and the closure price amounted to 241.05 lei per certificate in the first July session. Eight purchase and 26 sale bids were launched in the second session, when the closure price was 240.98 lei per certificate.

As many as 388,003 green certificates have been traded on PCCV, since early this year. The green certificate is a document attesting 1MWh electricity generated from renewable energy sources. The renewable energy sources eligible to participate in the Green Certificate negotiation system are the water energy made use of in the power plants having an installed power of utmost 10MW, the wind energy, the sun energy and the geothermal energy and the associated fuel gases, biomass, biogas, waste and mud fermentation gas from the wastewater treatment plants.

The mandatory annual quota for 2012 amounts to 8.3 percent of the electricity supplied by each supplier to the end users.

The national targets for the electricity consumption amount to 35 percent and to 38 percent in the perspective of the year 2015 and 2020 respectively."

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Sentences of note

"Murle raids for cattle and a far more valuable commodity, children, have prompted Dinka and Nuer warriors to retaliate in kind."

Well, that certainly jumped out at me anyway. From THIS article in this week's economist.

Development and military expenditure

A quote from this week's Economist: "Military analysts at IHS Jane’s say that South-East Asian countries together increased defence spending by 13.5% last year, to $24.5 billion. The figure is projected to rise to $40 billion by 2016. According to SIPRI, arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold in 2005-09, compared with the previous five years. Indonesia’s spending grew by 84% in that period."

The full article is HERE.

What. if anything, should this imply for development expenditure? I must confess, I am actually not at all sure. Does it matter in any way at all? Thoughts?

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Does climate change fuel terrorism?

Here are a few paragraphs from an article on the more general topic strife in the Sahal in this week's Economist.

Low precipitation may seem normal near the Sahara. In fact, much of the Sahel normally gets enough rain to allow modest farming. But a rise in water temperatures in the nearby Gulf of Guinea has shifted the flow of rain clouds southwards, meteorologists say. Livestock have died in droves. Long-term overgrazing and fast population growth have made the problem worse.

Oxfam, an aid agency, warns of a humanitarian disaster, with more than 1m children facing severe malnutrition. Villagers in Chad already dig up ant hills to gather grain the ants have stored. But the worst-affected place is now Niger, a landlocked country of 15m people which, even in normal times, accounts for a sixth of global child deaths from malnutrition. Save the Children, another aid agency, says that the situation in Niger has worsened since September, when a lack of rain led to crop failures of up to 80%.

Misery has made the Sahel’s thousands of unemployed an easy target for recruiters from extremist groups. Their main base lies across Niger’s badly patrolled border with Algeria, where the Sahel becomes outright desert. A two-decade-old Islamist insurgency there has adopted the mantle of global jihad and renamed itself al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Having failed to dislodge the military regime along Algeria’s densely populated Mediterranean coast, these extremists are increasingly focused on the sandy hinterland.

Weather insurance

Climate change is causing more weather extremes and more micro climates. Those who rely on agriculture in developing countries are hit extremely harshly. Mongolia, a country which relies on livestock, saw 25% of its stock die in 2010 resulting, largely from arctic oscillations. The World Bank (amongst plenty of others) is working on a number of weather insurance schemes and I attended an interesting seminar about some of these a few weeks ago.

There are great challenges however when implementing such schemes. The first challenge is to decide when to pay out. The schemes presented in the seminar require publicly available indexes. For example, a publicly available index of rainfall. When it falls below a certain level, if your farm is within a certain radius of the weather station you receive a payout. This was the case in an example in Hondurus presented. In Mongolia, an index of livestock death was used. In both cases, the aim is that an individual farmer cannot influence the likelihood of payout. They also ensure that a farmer who suffers less because he has made investment to protect himself from climate change is not penalised because he has been hit less hard. This encourages such investments. Finally, the index is public, clear and verifiable helping to win trust and gain buy-in.

There are problems though. The first is often weather stations. They often don't exist in sufficient numbers and relevant places in developing countries, so a network may have to be set up. A second issue comes in managing the scheme. Some experiences show that the scheme stops becoming viable when just a key employee or two, with the relevant expertise, leave an insurance company. In nomadic places like Mongolia, sales agents have to chase herds around the country to sell insurance! This makes the costs very high. An Indian example extended to groundwater levels which is a function of the previous monsoon. Therefore insurance has to be purchased prior to the monsoon.

Overall, the practical implementation of these schemes seems challenging but the benefits in the face of climate change, extremely high, when the schemes work.

One of my favourite things about the World Bank is the openness. You can read all about these different projects online. Here are links to the different documents:  Mongolia ; India ; Central America.

Geo-engineering and climate change

I recently attended an absolutely superb seminar given by Prof. Edward Parson on geo-engineering. I occasionally hear interesting things about some of the possibilities on my favourite science podcasts from the Guardian Science, Scientific American and Nature but it is not really a topic I know much about. I learnt some fascinating things from this seminar.

Some simple examples of geo-engineering include painting roads and house roofs white so that they reflect the sun. More advanced examples include putting reflexive (e.g. sulphur) particles into the stratosphere which can reflect heat. As it happens, there is an article on today's BBC suggesting that cloud whitening towers could be built to slow warming across the Arctic. 

The single main message that geo-engineering massively widen the climate possibilities, in both the good and bad directions. In the best case, it may have the capacity to solve global warming. In the worst case scenario, it can wipe humanity off the face of the earth and re-create 'snowball earth'. 

Good things: 
* Within a couple of years it can achieve the kind of cooling that it would take decades of carbon capture to achieve. And this an be achieved by putting reflexive particles into the atmosphere from almost anywhere. We know this because Mount Pinatuba erupted it cooled the earth by around half a degree Celsius and this lasted for a few years.
* It is cheap. The direct costs of doing this are probably just a few billion dollars a year. Basically nothing.
* When placed into the lower atmosphere they could reduce some of the more local effects of climate change such as tornadoes, floods etc.

* They don't solve everything. As pointed out by The God Species (one of my favourite books on climate change), the earth has many boundaries and crossing any one of them can have severe consequences.
* These technologies do not control earth and water temperatures in the same way so we are left with a much drier earth. This could effect things like the monsoon upon which billions of people rely.
* There may be ozone depletion which is worse that currently estimated. We will make the sky whiter and we are putting acid into the sky which will come down in the rain.

One option would be to use geo-engineering to buy time or just on a local level. But this itself carries the human-behaviour risk that we come to rely on these technologies and don't make the efforts we should to reduce climate change. In addition, if we use geo-engineering to, say, keep the planet 5 degrees cooler than it would be given the pollution we cause, and then one day we are unable or unwilling to use the technology, the earth would very suddenly gain those 5 degrees with all of the consequences.

We then have issues related international cooperation and conflict. Who has the right to decide to use this technology? Many large, wealthy and technologically advanced countries have the ability to do this and there would be winners and losers. Could it create international conflict? Could it be used as a tool for international conflict? If a country or group of countries take the lead, even if it is with the best intentions, there would be some losers. How do we compensate those losers? What if something goes wrong, the leaders could be blamed for it and perhaps accused of deliberately behaving in a malevolent way even when no such intentions existed. 

How do we create international laws and institutions which are capable of addressing these issues?

On the other hand, without this option, we could be heading for disaster already. We could behave badly and take humanity on a path to destruction. But we could also simply be unlucky. Even if we do everything we should do, climate change might still place human existence in peril. If we arrive at this point and have not already tested this technology, then we risk either not being able to develop it quickly or using it in a dangerous way.

Therefore, we somehow want to have the option to use this technology. BUT without it in any way causing a moral hazard problem - i.e. without it changing human behaviour. Knowing that we MIGHT be able to call on this in the future is not a good reason not to behave correctly now. AND we need to be able to think carefully about the scientific and institutional international context including all of the risks. Geo-engineering has the capacity to save humanity or kill us. Abandoning it has severe consequences and so might developing it if we are unable to manage it. Should be fun to watch the scientific progress and follow the emotional debates it will generate.

Buy your own environment bonds

Ecuador has lots of oil sitting beneath its rainforest. It could chop down the forest and become richer almost overnight. But you and your children would have less nice clean air to breath, and the world would lose one of its most diverse ecosystems - and who knows what medications might be found there in the future if it is left unharmed. This poor country would lose about USD 7bn if it does not tap this oil. But if the world contributes just half of these losses then it will be prepared to forego the lost resources. Effectively, a relatively poor country is prepared to subsidise your clean air. Pretty generous, I'd say. 

I bought a 'green bond' some time ago. You can contribute just $5 if you like and, if ever the decision is taken to pump the oil, the government has to give you the money back. The scheme is administered by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The returns are in-kind. You and those around you get cleaner air; you keep the opportunity to visit this part of the world any time in your life; you get to feel good that you are doing something for the world and that you are helping to compensate a poor country for part of its losses (you like to give a little something back :)  ) and occasionally you receive emails giving you updates and reminding you what a fantastic human being you are. And it's one of those emails that prompted me to write this entry.

You can read about the scheme and buy your green bonds HERE. The Yasuni National Park website about the scheme is HERE (in Spanish) and an analysis of the scheme by the World Resources Institute is HERE.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

"The effects of climate change will principally be felt by poor people in poor countries"

I went to a discussion yesterday with the authors of the different chapters of the soon-to-be released Oxford Companion to the Economics of Africa. The whole conversation was interesting but I found climate change to be perhaps the most scary part. Here are a couple of things that jumped out at me:

- Simulations suggest that if the surface temperature of the plane increased by 2 degrees Celsius, the cost in terms of world GDP would be around 3 to 4%. That is not very much. For most people in developed countries, that would be like not getting a real wage increase for a couple of years. You could probably live with that. But, if the billion poorest people in the world lost half of their daily income, that is around two thirds of one percent of world GDP. Practically nothing for the world. But pretty tough for them. Given that most of the cost of climate change will fall on them, this is worrying.

- The best defence poor countries can have against climate change is their own development. So it is difficult to insist that out of their own resources they should make changes in terms of energy use, infrastructure development etc. So developed countries should pay for, for example, the development of low emissions energy networks or transport infrastructure.

- Unless the well-to-do of the world get themselves together to do something about climate change, the worst sufferers will be in places that look like Africa.

- Whilst googling to find a picture to put here, I found this book, which I have just ordered. I'll write about it another time.

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Why I love my Brompton

1. Isn't she a beauty?

2. The greenness of a bike combined with the practicality of having the option to take a cab after a few beers.
- fits easily in the boot of a cab and metro

3. Safe: solidly (hand-)made

4. Folds up wonderfully small and is carry-able

5. It takes under 30 seconds to fold and unfold

6. The gearing is *amazing*. You can comfortably get up steep hills but you can build up impressive speeds on straight stretches of road. (Mine has six gears)

7. Loads of fantastic little features like the bag that clips on the front (and looks professional enough when slung over the shoulder), the nicely tucked away pump, the foldaway pedal, the little bag it packs away into.

8. Much easier to duck onto and cycle on pavements than normal bikes because it is smaller and less disturbing for pedestrians. 

9. Carry it in to restaurants/bars - no need to search for a place to lock it up and then worry about it getting stolen. Even better, the people who give snide remarks about it being a 'children's bike' look like the ones who would be most likely to steal it.

10. There is a World Championship! (see the video)

Learn more about Bromptons HERE.

You can buy them in DC from Bicycle Space.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Will higher fuel prices hurt you significantly?

Apparently, Gingrich sees lower fuel prices as his ticket to the White House. You can vote in today's pole as to whether higher fuel prices will hurt you significantly. (HT: The Daily Beast). Of course, it doesn't matter if they would hurt you significantly; your current low fuel prices are basically a plundering of the poor by the relatively rich (and if you are reading this, you are relatively rich). And if the nice Mr Gingrich lowers your fuel bill even more, it is a lot less free than you think.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Amazing new cyclewear

The Sporty Supaheroe* cycle jacket has "intelligent" sensors and dynamic LEDs meaning that it could glow bright red at the back when the cyclist is breaking. The range should be released later this year by the utopeproject. I want one! (HT: SS)

*The name is not my fault

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations

I just attended a presentation by Micheal L Ross on his book: The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. I learnt a some very interesting things in a short time that thought I would share whilst wolfing down my lunch*.

-- Oil countries have higher birth rates and lower female participation rates in the labour force. Possibly due to the fact that Dutch Disease kills sectors in which women tend to participate, such as the export manufacturing and agriculture sectors.

-- Oil-producers have considerably less open budgeting processes than non-oil producers.

-- Since the end of the cold war there has been a significant reduction in the number of civil wars in countries. But this reduction comes entirely from non-oil producing countries.

--The number of democracies has increased significantly since the end of the cold war but this is entirely in non-oil producing countries.

-- The oil curse only started to appear following the price hikes/wave of nationalisations that occurred in the 1970s. Prior to this, oil producing countries were no more likely to have a civil war, no more likely to be a dictatorship and their budgets were as transparent as other countries.

-- Countries with only off-shore oil are significantly less likely to have a civil war than countries with some on-shore oil - in fact they are about as likely as non-oil producers to have a civil war. This suggests that tribal, ethnic, regional tensions are exacerbated if those in oil-producing regions do not feel they get their fair share and the ability of fighters for these causes can use oil to prolong fighting. 

-- There are currently only about five major oil producers in sub-Saharan Africa but this is likely to double or even triple by 2050 as more exploration is done on the continent, as oil demand increases, supply runs out elsewhere and the resulting price increases make it viable to produce in the region. This makes it important to try to address some of these issues.

So, you see, oil isn't all good.

*A part of the 'Insights into the exciting lives of economists' series

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Climate change and its link to life

I came across THIS nice little collection of articles on how climate change effects life. I think it might be being done for a class.

Market forces to combat climate change

David Frum argues that the best way for the (US) government to reduce oil dependence is to 'do nothing'. By 'do nothing' he seems to mean tax dirty energy and reduce income taxes by an equivalent amount*. If consumers really value polluting, they will spend all of their reduced taxation on that, if not, they can maybe use their extra cash to buy a bike and cut down on petrol. Given that 40% of trips in the US are under 2 miles and 90% of these are done by car, this seems possible even with current sprawling suburbs. Although there are issues, some independent-minded folk from Raleigh, North Carolina have been trying to figure out how to make Americans walk more (a short, fun video). I think that higher taxes on fuel are a practical and moral obligation.

Unfortunately, maybe your kid will learn that climate change is a big hoax in school. And Newt Gingrich seems to think that a free-market supporting American government should intervene to guarantee cheap petrol (HT:JK). The flip side is that taxes would have to rise to pay for the increased subsidies and there will be more floods, droughts, forest fires across America as a result of the increased pollution. It doesn't seem like such a fantastic deal.

* In the sense that this means no net change in the burden on the taxpayer, this is 'doing nothing'. But I think he undersells himself in that changing behavioural incentives to minimise negative externalities is a difficult and important part of governing a country.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Who cares about climate change?

58% of Americans, 68% of Europeans and a full 99% of people who live on small islands. That is what I learnt in a nice little seminar I went to yesterday chaired by Andrew Steer, the World Bank's special envoy for climate change. The Maldives puts some of its tourist dollars into a special trust so that they can eventually buy a new homeland when they go under the sea. Not a bad idea... The US Navy apparently assumes a 1.2 meter rise in sea levels by the end of the century and some of the island nations are working on the possibility of up to 5 meters.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

ReCYCLE in Lesotho

Bikes are really taking off in Africa! Global Cycle Solutions are doing a great job making them a 'vehicle of transformation' in Tanzania, you can join the Zambia bike challenge, or the Uganda bike challenge, there is a possibility of manufacturing bikes for the first time in Africa

Just posted by the wonderful folk at Kick4Life Lesotho is this great little video on their program using bikes to collect rubbish and recycle it: ReCYCLE.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Bikes to be manufactured in Africa

"Across Africa they are used to carry infants, lug sacks of grain and ferry boxes of vegetables and crates of chickens to and from markets. In Rwanda, people careen down hills astride homemade wooden versions bereft of brakes. The bicycle is a part of everyday life for many Africans. Yet, despite demand, there is no mass-market African bicycle manufacturer."

Read the rest of the article HERE (gated - create a free FT account to read)

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Brazilian ethanol finally allowed into the US

American ethanol uses to much energy to produce it is probably no greener than petrol. Not only that but it displaces food production pushing up food prices. Alternatively, it requires using land that could be used to grow trees. American ethanol production uses billions in subsidies. Funds that could be used for health or education or transport or the environment or lower taxes for businesses and workers. Anything. I came to the conclusion some time ago that it only exists because of the power of the corn lobby. On the few occasions that I fill up a car in the US, I deliberately avoid the mixed petrol-ethanol on offer. I reckon it is probably less green than pure petrol.

Brazilian ethanol takes less energy to produce (even including transport), uses less land per litre to produce, is cheaper and more efficient. Finally, in the current climate of cut-backs, it can't be justified not to allow it to compete with the US variety. It should result in a large reduction of ethanol being produced in the US. Brazil's economy should grow faster lifting more people out of poverty and the American consumer can have cheaper and greener fuel for their cars. The subsidies should go, the land used for food or forest. The world will be a greener place. And, I can fill up cars with ethanol. Oh, but the small vested interests of the corn-lobby in the US which produces inefficient American ethanol due to the utterly crazy subsidy scheme will lose out. All thanks to the fact that Brazilian ethanol is finally allowed into the US.

Britain's progress (and lack of) in cycling

HERE is a great Guardian Focus podcast on cycling in the UK. Part of the great Bike Podcast they do. 

With the caveat that I do not live or cycle in London, I agree with some of the things discussed but disagree with others. Not enough is invested in cycling especially considering the economic benefits of cycling and the billions lost every year because of congestion. I think they have been too harsh on Boris Johnson - although it is not perfect, plenty of progress seems to have been made in London on cycling. A lot more needs to be done though. London's Blue Lanes are clearly insufficient but I disagree that they do nothing - I think that they are likely to raise awareness and change attitudes slowly. I am concerned however at the lack of resources used for cycling when funds are found for other transport. I was interested to discover that Tony Blair revealed in his memoirs that the closest any of his governments came to collapse was when there were queues at the petrol pump (I have not read it). It shows the power of the car lobby. I was happy to see that petrol prices in the UK are probably now about two thirds to three quarters of the full cost of humanity. They still need to rise further.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

A couple of cool bike things

1. Strava. I used it for the first time today. Very cool app for smartphones keeps track of cycling times and distances, plots it all on maps and shows you the main climbs. No need for a special computer any more! (HT: SS)

2. Phones use a lot of battery especially if you are running GPS using strava. So what you need is a way to charge your phone using your bike. Enter Global Cycle Solutions. They design products that can improve lives in developing countries using bikes and I love them. You can buy your own from their website too!

3. Buy some bicycle art from this etsy store. Available in different sizes.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Carbon offsetting is sexy!

I did it for my flights to the UK over the xmas hols and for the 1600 miles I managed to clock up in the hire car. I don't think that I should have had to do either as it should be included automatically. Happily, any airlines flying into or out of the EU now have to pay the carbon tax if they exceed their (tradeable) limits. It's a pity these carbon credits were given away rather than sold to begin with and not sold but it is a good start. 

I am really happy the EU resisted pressure from airlines and other countries not to introduce the tax. See, for example, this stupid article from the Washington Examiner which thinks that the EU is trying to get foreigners to bail out the failing European economy - um... Europeans have to pay the tax too; increasing transport costs hurt not benefit the economy in the short run; and, quite frankly, we will all destroy all of our lives if we done implement schemes such as this - in economic models, that results in a utility of minus infinity making this excellent long-run economics.

Carbon offsetting the flight and the car journey makes them both more expensive but if I don't pay, someone else (who is probably significantly poorer than me) will pay for it

I use myclimate.org to do my carbon offsetting.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Junk mail

Just two weeks away and I got all of this, just from Comcast. It is already all on its way back to them with a request not to send any more of this junk unless it is actually important (as per the indication on the envelope). How many trees? How much transport? How much energy? ....